2024 U.S. ELECTIONS RAPID RESEARCH BLOG

AFTERNOON RESEARCH MEMO | NOVEMBER 5

This is part of an ongoing series of rapid research blog posts and rapid research analysis about the 2024 U.S. elections from the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. This research memo identifies election rumors using a combination of qualitative, quantitative, digital ethnographic, and visual, methodologies. It was crossposted on the CIP’s election rumor research Substack newsletter.

If you are a journalist, researcher, or election official who would like more information on a particular rumor, or wish to speak to the CIP research team about our ongoing rapid research findings, you can contact us using this Google Form. 

A Note on Information Dynamics

As we highlighted in yesterday’s memo, finding a signal in the noise of rumoring can be more difficult right on election day. There is a lot more content, a lot more rumoring, and a lot more speculation. We are in the “flood the zone with sh*t” phase of election rumoring. As polls close in the evening, certain salient rumors may consolidate into a few core themes and cases as attention is narrowed by influencers, political actors, and media. 

As we noted in our “What to Expect When We’re Electing” piece on election week rumors, we see people posting instances of real or perceived voting issues. These range from problems with voting machines, registration issues, emergency closures, altercations between voters and election workers and more. Many issues will have remedies, though these may not be reported on immediately or shared by people who initially spread the rumor. While “fake evidence” or entirely fabricated images or videos tend to be rare, they may increase on Election Day, when fact-checkers may be more strained. 

Pennsylvania Tabulator Issues Reminiscent of Maricopa County in 2022 

Issues with vote tabulating machines in Pennsylvania are the big story this Election Day. They may play out similarly to rumors around tabulator issues in Maricopa County, Arizona in 2022. So far today, we have seen early discussion and rumors of concern about voting machine and tabulator issues — primarily about tabulator issues in Cambria County, but about machines more generally in Bedford, Butler, and other counties. Some of these rumors have taken a conspiratorial tone, suggesting that the issues may be intentional. These mirror similar discussions in Maricopa in 2022 which eventually produced conspiracy theories alleging the issues were an intentional effort to disenfranchise Election Day voters. 

What happened?

Early this morning, tabulators (the devices that scan paper ballots and count the votes) were unable to scan paper ballots in numerous polling centers across Cambria County, Pennsylvania. County officials released a statement addressing the issue, explaining the issue and the remedies. Ballots already cast would be kept in a lockbox until tabulators could count them. The board of elections filed a court order that extended voting times till 10 p.m. in Cambria. 

Rumors Spreading

Rumors about the vote tabulator issues in Pennsylvania began spreading rapidly on X on Election Day, starting around 8 a.m. EST (Figure 1). The initial reports of the issues themselves were true – tabulators were not working. But false rumors quickly took shape around them. These included insinuations that the issues were somehow intentional and meant to disenfranchise Election Day voters (e.g. Image 2, 3), with some alleging that the issues would have an outsized effect on Republicans. Sometimes these rumors referenced Cambria or Pennsylvania specifically, but many referred to voting machine issues more broadly.

 

Often, these accusations were made in veiled ways, for example by suggesting that issues in conservative areas are “not surprising” (Image 3) or “not a coincidence.” We have also begun to see posts that bring reports of voting machine issues together with other reports of voting problems in other places to suggest a larger plot and/or widespread impact.

The announced remedies in Pennsylvania, which included putting cast ballots into “lockboxes” until the tabulators worked, were treated by many with suspicion. Some online commenters suggested the proposed remedy was untrustworthy and possibly part of an attempt to “rig” the election. Some online voices stoked this suspicion, urging voters to stay in line instead of putting their ballots in a “lockbox” to be counted later. There were also claims that the technical fixes to the machines were allowing them to be rigged.

The rumors around these real issues with voting machines on Election Day are very similar to rumors around broken tabulators in Arizona in 2022.

Similar Rumors in Maricopa County in 2022

Early in the morning on Election Day 2022, reports spread that tabulators were unable to scan large quantities of paper ballots in Maricopa County. The issue ended up being a problem with printers, but this was not known at that time. 

Similar to today’s rumors, there were unfounded allegations in 2022 that the tabulator issues were intentional. Online, conservative voters and influencers interpreted this as unduly affecting Republican voters, who were more likely to vote in person on election day than Democrats. Some noted that election officials had years to prepare, suggesting that issues reflected either negligence or malfeasance.

Meanwhile, audiences were skeptical of voting remedies, most notably leaving their ballot in “Box 3” to be counted later. They feared their ballot would be taken “downtown,” where some believed it would be manipulated or not counted. As a result, long lines emerged because of the malfunctioning machines and because voters did not trust the remedy and wanted to stay with their ballot. The lines also fed rumors of voter suppression. 

The GOP filed an emergency lawsuit to keep polling centers open later to ensure all voters were able to vote. Ultimately, Kari Lake, then the Republican candidate for governor in Arizona, filed lawsuits challenging the results (while claiming disenfranchisement online) while amplifying rumors.

Poll Watching Context

Rumors involving poll watchers have emerged, with a few alleging they have been turned away from polling sites. But what are poll watchers?  Poll watchers (also called poll observers or election observers) are people — usually volunteers — who are legally authorized to observe different parts of the election process. Specific policies regarding who is eligible to be a poll watcher differ from state to state, but generally include designated representatives from political parties, campaigns, or civic groups. Some states also allow other members of the public to observe election processes. 

Poll watchers monitor the election, but cannot do things that may violate voter privacy, intimidate voters, or otherwise interfere with election processes. In some states, poll watchers are permitted to challenge the eligibility of voters or the validity of ballots, but other state laws draw a distinction between the roles of observers and challengers.

These guides provide more information about poll watchers:

• An explanation and collection of other resources, Election Assistance Commission
• A summary of observer and challenger laws in each state, National Association of Secretaries of State
• A recent explainer about poll watchers roles and duties, Axios
• The National Conference of State Legislatures website is down at the time of writing, but also has an explainer with summaries of the laws in each state.

Voting Machine Rumors Context

Yesterday, we published a guide to voting machine rumors that we expect to see today and days to come. Rumors and conspiracy theories about voting machines were a major theme in the aftermath of the last presidential election. That said, they did not begin to truly “go viral” until five days after Election Day 2020 (Figure 2).  Given the centrality of voting machine rumors in 2020, this “meta-narrative” may prime folks to focus on voting machine rumors today and in the week to come.