2024 U.S. ELECTIONS RAPID RESEARCH BLOG
EVENING RESEARCH MEMO | NOVEMBER 5
This is part of an ongoing series of rapid research blog posts and rapid research analysis about the 2024 U.S. elections from the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. This research memo identifies election rumors using a combination of qualitative, quantitative, digital ethnographic, and visual, methodologies. It was crossposted on the CIP’s election rumor research Substack newsletter.
If you are a journalist, researcher, or election official who would like more information on a particular rumor, or wish to speak to the CIP research team about our ongoing rapid research findings, you can contact us using this Google Form.
We noted three prominent rumor themes today that we expect to resurface as the focus of rumors as votes are counted and the election is certified. The first involved dozens of “non-credible” bomb threats communicated to polling locations in swing states, particularly Georgia. The second emerged in Milwaukee, where a number of seals on tabulating machines were discovered to be broken and a recount of affected ballots ordered. The third major theme, which we covered in an earlier memo, stemmed from malfunctioning vote tabulators in Pennsylvania. Each of these events catalyzed rumors that are likely to reappear in the coming days and weeks. Here, we review each of these events, describe some of the rumors that have taken shape around them, and provide some visibility into how they spread online.
Bomb Threats to Polling Locations in Swing States
Over the course of Election Day, there were dozens of bomb threats made to polling locations in swing states including Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
The first reports of bomb threats occurred during the morning hours in Georgia, leading to the evacuation of two polling stations in Fulton County. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger soon informed reporters that the threats were “non-credible” and originated from Russia. More bomb threats were received throughout the day in DeKalb and Fulton Counties.
Multiple bomb threats were communicated via email to polling locations in Pennsylvania. During the morning hours, a government services office in West Chester was evacuated, and voters there were sent to an alternative location to cast provisional ballots. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Kranser said there were at least two fake bomb threats in the area. There appear to have been threats in other locations as well, including at least one in Snyder County.
In Arizona, officials reported four bomb threats against polling locations in Navajo County. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes called the reports “unsubstantiated.”
We may continue to learn about additional bomb threats in the days to come. All have been deemed to be “non-credible” and potentially the work of a foreign state information operation.
Several rumors have already taken shape around the threats. Early conversations speculated that the threats were an attempt to suppress voter turnout. On the political Right, conspiracy theories alleged that the threats were not actually from Russia, but instead were made by Democratic operatives.
We expect this story to evolve over the next few days as the extent of these threats becomes more clear. In parallel, we anticipate continued speculation and conspiracy theorizing about the purpose behind these threats and about whom they may have been designed to benefit. The political coding of these rumors will likely shift with the expected / eventual winner of the presidential race in Georgia, where the threats were widespread.
Figure 1: Temporal graph showing the number of X posts per minute from when polls opened at 6 a.m. EST to 10 p.m. EST. Data obtained from Brandwatch Consumer Research.
Figure 1 shows the volume of X posts about the bomb threats throughout the day. There are four significant peaks in the conversation, all focused on the bomb threats in Georgia. The first aligns with speculations about potential Russian involvement and the right-leaning audiences’ suspicion over it. The second burst shows renewed attention to an older story about a poll worker who was arrested Monday for bomb threats that he was accused of making in mid-October. The third spike reflects amplification of the alleged poll worker connection by far-right radio host and conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. There is a fourth smaller spike where left-leaning accounts discussed threats in left-leaning Fulton County. We expect conversation about these threats to continue and possibly to grow, in the hours and days to come.
Broken Seals on Vote Tabulators in Milwaukee
During the early afternoon, news began to spread that “broken seals” had been discovered by an election observer on multiple vote tabulating machines at Milwaukee’s central counting facility. At the time, the machines had already begun to tabulate absentee ballots. Election officials determined that the broken seals on doors covering the on-off switches of several machines had not been closed properly and were the result of a “human error.” They also noted no machines or ballots had been tampered with. However, out of an “over abundance of caution,” officials decided to rerun around 30,000 ballots that had already been counted, delaying the results.
Lara Trump posted on X about the delays caused by the issue, claiming that counting had taken place in “unsecured conditions and the city now has to start over.” X commentators were unconvinced that the incident was an error and instead alleged without evidence that delaying vote counts was an intentional strategy to allow for election fraud.
Figure 2: Graph showing the cumulative number of tweets related rumoring about the recount in Milwaukee, Wisconsin due to a tabulator being unsealed. The time zone visualized is UTC and starts at 10 p.m. UTC, which is the same as 4 p.m. Central Standard Time (Wisconsin’s time zone).
Early discourse was driven by influential accounts on X that we have previously described as newsbrokers. @libsoftiktok catalyzed an increase in virality in the afternoon, which increased further when Lara Trump (the most retweeted tweet in our data) posted about the recount. Mainstream news accounts also posted stories about the event as the day progressed.
Malfunctioning Tabulators in Pennsylvania and Other Swing States
As we wrote about this morning, rumors spread early in the day about reported issues with tabulator machines in Pennsylvania. Many rumors surrounding the issues were reminiscent of those in Maricopa County in 2022.
Rumors began when reports came through that tabulators were unable to scan paper ballots in numerous polling centers across Cambria County, Pennsylvania. County officials released a statement addressing the issue, explaining the issue and the remedies. Ballots already cast would be kept in a lockbox until working tabulators could be used to count them. The board of elections filed a court order that extended voting times till 10 PM in Cambria.
The initial reports of the issues themselves were true, but false rumors quickly took shape around them. These included insinuations that the issues were intentional and meant to disenfranchise Election Day voters, with some alleging that the issues would have an outsized effect on Republicans.
Figure 3 shows a graph of conversations surrounding tabulator issues in Pennsylvania throughout the day. They begin with early reports of the error that are amplified when the courts permitted polling sites to stay open until 10 p.m. EST. Some posts attempted to connect the Cambria voting machine issues to broader allegations of a “rigged” election in Pennsylvania.
Figure 3: Plot showing the cumulative number of tweets related to the rumor surrounding tabulator issues in Pennsylvania on Election Day. Circles are sized by number of followers and colored by tweet type. The timezone visualized is UTC and starts at 1 p.m. UTC, which is the same as 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (Pennsylvania’s time zone).
Tabulators also malfunctioned in Apache County, Arizona, where the Navajo Nation is located. Earlier in the day, posters on X shared claims that voting machines were down and that voters were being turned away. Officials confirmed machine malfunctions had caused long lines. The Navajo Nation sued Apache County to keep polling places throughout the region open longer, and a Superior Court Judge granted the motion, allowing certain polling places to remain open until 9 p.m. MST.