2024 U.S. ELECTIONS RAPID RESEARCH BLOG
RAPID RESEARCH NOTE
This is part of an ongoing series of rapid research blog posts and rapid research analysis about the 2024 U.S. elections from the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public. It was crossposted on the CIP’s election rumor research Substack newsletter.
Though voter registration fraud is rare in the U.S., recently, in Pennsylvania, the Lancaster County District Attorney and Board of Elections reported segregating 2,500 suspicious voter registrations from two “drop batches” by individuals. Officials say they are actively verifying each form to remove fraud while keeping valid registrations. In their press conference on the topic, county officials shared that 60% of the forms reviewed up to that point were deemed fraudulent, though they noted that not all 2,500 had been reviewed at the time of the press conference. Thus this is a confirmed case of attempted voter registration fraud.
Additionally, District Attorney Heather Adams stated in an October 25 press conference, “It is believed that the fraudulent voter registrations are connected to a large-scale canvassing operations for voter registrations that date back to June.” As of late-day October 29, no suspects have been identified, nor have the party identifications of the fraudulent registration forms been made public. Officials committed to completing a thorough review to ensure accuracy and legitimacy.
It is important to note that the fraudulent registrations were found, there are remedies to remove the fraudulent registrations, and these attempted registrations will not impact results. This underscores the measures to secure the election and remedies that are available when there are issues.
In the days that followed the press conference, clips and claims started circulating on social media, with both sides of the political spectrum packaging the news into their respective narratives. In this research note, we outline the major narratives that spread from right and left-leaning audiences online.
Right Rumoring
On the political right, several prominent accounts used video clips of the press conference as an example to challenge the prevailing narrative from experts (and many Democrats) that widespread voter registration fraud isn’t real. These posts framed Lancaster County’s case as proof of fraud that authorities might not be catching or are ignoring. This incident of real voter fraud is being framed as merely the “tip of the iceberg,” implying that it is part of a suspected larger scheme of widespread election fraud. This “exaggerated impact” is one of the “five moves of misleading election rumors” we have previously identified.
Figure 1: In this X post, influencer @DC_Draino suggests that the Lancaster registration fraud case was caused by Democrats, though party identification of the fraudulent ballots has not yet been released publicly. This post embeds a video clip of the District Attorney of Lancaster’s press conference.
Audiences quickly picked up this message, sharing such tweets widely with comments like “look at this!” They used this framing to counter claims that voter registration fraud is a “hoax” and to argue that fraudsters may “sneak in” fraudulent registrations close to deadlines elsewhere. Several made unfounded claims that the attempted fraudulent registrations were for Democratic voters because the partisan identity of the fraudulent registrations have not been made public, at least at the time of publishing this post.
Scott Presler, a conservative activist who has been focusing his work in Pennsylvania, leveraged the news in Lancaster to draw attention to another Pennsylvania county where he has been active, Luzerne, calling for investigations of voter registration activity there. His tweets have garnered widespread attention (see Figure 2) Presler has been vocal about his non-profit, Early Vote Action, and their efforts to register Republican voters in Pennsylvania across many counties. In particular, he has publicized his work in Luzerne County, as well as his efforts to reach the Amish community, including in Lancaster County – which has been the subject of left-wing rumoring discussed in the next section. There have been press reports about this as well.
Earlier this year, it was reported that Republican National Committee (RNC) co-chair Lara Trump had wanted to hire Presler for the RNC’s “legal ballot harvesting” operation. Presler ultimately wasn’t chosen.
Luzerne County officials have commented in light of the Lancaster voter registration fraud discovery, reiterating that no voter registration fraud has been discovered in their county.
Figure 2: Elon Musk retweets Scott Presler’s post connecting the voter registration fraud in Lancaster County to what he alleges are irregularities in Luzerne County.
Left Rumoring
On the left, a narrative has emerged directly targeting Scott Presler, with some speculating without evidence that he might be behind the Lancaster fraud. Presler’s high-profile RNC-backed “Get Out the Vote” efforts and his vocal focus on registering Republican voters in Luzerne County, particularly among the Amish population there, have been brought into the conversation. Some left-leaning voices online are questioning if Presler himself might be involved in the Lancaster fraud, suggesting, “Isn’t he the one pushing voter registrations?” and insinuating, without evidence, that Lara Trump instructed him to do it. Presler shared a post to X, stating that his non-profit, Early Vote Action, had nothing to do with the fraudulent activity reported in Lancaster.
Figure 3: In this X post, an account speculates that Scott Presler is behind these fraudulent voter registrations. The post includes a screenshot from a video of the Lancaster County District Attorney’s October 25 press conference. The poster is anonymized because it has fewer than 500,000 followers and is not a public figure.
Similar to the unfounded finger-pointing from the right, several left-wing social media users have claimed without evidence that the fraud was committed by Republicans. At the time of publication, officials in Lancaster County have not announced specific suspects or groups involved in the fraudulent registration forms, nor have they announced the partisan identity of the fraudulent voter registration forms.
Emergent Rumors in Nearby Counties Attract Trump’s Attention
Figure 4: A map of Pennsylvania counties showing the proximity of York (orange) and Lancaster (green) counties, which are adjacent to one another. A Northern county, Luzerne (purple), has been involved in rumors as well.
Nearby, in York County, another rumor of potential voter registration fraud is spreading. Though York officials have not confirmed if there are fraudulent registrations, they are investigating recently received registration forms. Officials note that receiving large amounts of registrations at the deadline isn’t abnormal though they noted in this case an overabundance came from one particular organization that has yet to be reported. The rumor that York County also has fraudulent registrations gained significant traction when Donald Trump tweeted that York has received thousands of “potentially fraudulent” voter registration forms (see Figure 5), fueling speculation of foul play in this adjacent county among his followers and other voices on X.
Figure 5: A map of Pennsylvania counties showing the proximity of York (orange) and Lancaster (green) counties, which are adjacent to one another. A Northern county, Luzerne (purple), has been involved in rumors as well.
Addendum October 31, 2024: We are including this cumulative plot to show how reports of voter registration fraud in Lancaster Counter, Pennsylvania were initially covered and amplified by mainstream and institutional sources, as well as newsbrokers. These were reframed by other political influencers to imply (without confirmed evidence) that there is more fraudulent voter registration in other counties like Luzerne, as amplified by Scott Presler, or York, as implied by Donald Trump.
We’re keeping an eye on these rumors and will update this blog post with additional information, analyses, and graphs as this story unfolds.