Through a polling partnership, the UW Center for an Informed Public, The Seattle Times and KING 5 News asked Washingtonians about themes of trust in elections that have emerged in our research.
By Michael Grass
Center for an Informed Public
University of Washington
At the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, we’ve been studying election rumors about voting processes and election administration, along with issues related to trust in our elections.
Through a partnership with The Seattle Times and KING 5 News, our team at the CIP has co-sponsored the WA Poll, which was conducted by Survey USA and surveyed 1,000 likely voters in Washington from October 10–14 on a variety of topics and issues related to the 2024 elections, including a variety of questions and concerns about trust in elections that have emerged in our research.
In recent days, The Seattle Times and KING5 have been reporting on a wide variety of WAPoll survey results, including questions related to top policy issues of concern, races for the White House, Washington governor and U.S. Senate, plus four state ballot initiatives, including No. 2117, 2109, 2141 and 2066.
At the Center for an Informed Public, we were particularly interested in asking survey respondents about their level of confidence in state and local election officials, state courts, federal courts and the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a disputed election. We also asked about concerns over post-election violence, delayed certification of results, and non-citizen voting. Below, we’ll go through these questions of particular interest to our team at the CIP.
About the WA Poll
The WA Poll, co-sponsored by the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, The Seattle Times and KING5-TV was conducted by SurveyUSA between October 10–14 and was conducted online among a representative nonprobability sample of Washington adults, selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to U.S. Census American Community Survey targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to respondents’ recalled 2020 presidential vote.
Resolving a Close Vote or Disputed Election
In the event of a close vote or disputed election, how much confidence do you have in each of the following to resolve the dispute?
- State and local election officials?
- State courts?
- Federal courts?
- U.S. Supreme Court?
According to October’s WA Poll results, a majority of Washington voters (70%) either have Great Confidence (24%) or Some Confidence (46%) in the ability of state and local election officials to resolve a close vote or disputed election. Meanwhile, a minority of Washington voters (18%) indicated they had No Confidence. 12% said they were Not Sure.
When we asked the same question in July, we saw similar results. About two-thirds of WA Poll respondents (66%) said they either had Great Confidence (24%) or Some Confidence (42%) in the ability of state and local election officials to resolve the dispute while 23% said they had No Confidence.
Republicans in Washington state have lower confidence in state and local election officials compared to Democrats and Independents. In the October WA Poll, 32% of Republicans said they had No Confidence in state and local election officials, compared to 4% of Democrats and 21% of independents.
We saw a similar breakdown in responses for the question about confidence in state courts to resolve a close vote or disputed election. In October, a majority of WA Poll respondents (71%) either had Great Confidence (51%) or Some Confidence (20%) in state courts while 18% said they had No Confidence. 11% said they were Not Sure.
While 35% of Democrats responding to the October WA Poll reported that they had Great Confidence in state courts to resolve a close vote or disputed election, compared to just 11% of Republicans and 14% of independents.
When the WA Poll partners asked the same question in July, there were similar results. More than two-thirds of respondents (68%) either had Great Confidence (47%) or Some Confidence (21%) in state courts to resolve a close vote or disputed election. Meanwhile, nearly one-fourth of respondents (24%) said they had No Confidence and 9% said they were Not Sure. Just 10% of Republicans responding to the July WA Poll said they had Great Confidence in state courts compared to 31% of Democrats and 21% of independents.
Regarding confidence in federal courts to resolve a close vote or disputed election, more than two-thirds of WA Poll respondents (67%) said in October that they have Great Confidence (47%) or Some Confidence (19%) while nearly one-fourth (24%) of respondents indicated they had No Confidence. 10% said they were Not Sure. Only 13% of Republicans responding to the WA Poll said they had Great Confidence in the federal courts, compared to 29% of Democrats and 15% of independents.
In July, a smaller majority of WA Poll respondents (59%) said they either had Great Confidence (15%) or Some Confidence (44%) in federal courts to resolve a close vote or disputed election. Meanwhile, 31% said they had No Confidence and 10% were Not Sure. Only 10% of Republicans responding to the July WA Poll said they had Great Confidence in the federal courts compared to 24% of Democrats and 12% of independents.
If the U.S. Supreme Court ended up resolving a close vote or disputed election, a majority of WA Poll respondents (57%) said in October that they either had Great Confidence (19%) or Some Confidence (38%) in the nation’s highest court. Meanwhile 32% of respondents said they had No Confidence and 11% were Not Sure. Higher percentages of Democrats (40%) and independents (32%) said they had No Confidence in the Supreme Court compared to 20% of Republicans who said the same.
In July, less than half (48%) said they either had Great Confidence (17%) or Some Confidence (31%) in the Supreme Court’s ability to resolve a close vote or disputed election. Meanwhile, 41% of WA Poll respondents in July said they had No Confidence in the high court and 11% were Not Sure. In the July WA Poll, higher percentages of Democrats (54%) and independents (44%) said they had No Confidence in the Supreme Court compared to Republicans (23%).
While confidence in state and local election officials and state courts to resolve a close vote or disputed election has remained high and mostly the same since July, WA Poll results suggest that confidence in federal courts and the Supreme Court has increased since July.
- October 2024 WA Poll results [Survey USA]
- July 2024 WA Poll results [Survey USA]
Concerns About Elections
In the October WA Poll, we asked respondents about their level of concern about certain possibilities that could impact the elections:
How concerned are you about each of the following things?
- Post-election violence?
- Election disputes delaying the certification of results?
- Non-citizens illegally voting in U.S. elections?
A majority (63%) of WA Poll respondents in October said they were either Very Concerned (26%) or Somewhat Concerned (37%) about the possibility of post-election violence. One in five respondents (20%) said they were Not Very Concerned, while 9% each were Not Concerned at All or Not Sure.
WA Poll respondents responded in similar ways to the question about concerns over election disputes delaying the certification of results. A majority of respondents (65%) said they were either Very Concerned (27%) or Somewhat Concerned (38%). Meanwhile, 19% said they were Not Very Concerned, 7% were Not Concerned At All and 9% said they were Not Sure.
In the question about non-citizens illegally voting in U.S. elections, less than half of respondents (46%) said they were Very Concerned (29%) or Somewhat Concerned (17%). A similar percentage (47%) said they were either Not Very Concerned (22%) or Not Concerned At All (25%). 7% of respondents said they were Not Sure.
As a follow-up question, we asked:
How often do you think non-citizens illegally vote in U.S. elections?
- Regularly?
- Occasionally?
- Or almost never?
WA Poll respondents said they thought non-citizens illegally vote either Regularly (25%) or Occasionally (24%), with 37% saying Almost Never. 14% said they were Not Sure. More Republicans (50%) said they believed that non-citizens regularly vote illegally in elections compared to Democrats (11%) and independents (22%) who said the same. 77% of the Republicans in our sample believe that non-citizens vote illegally in U.S. elections either regularly or on occasion. This percentage is estimated to be higher (85%) among likely Donald Trump voters (nationwide) in a recent national poll conducted by National Public Radio.
Voting in federal elections and in the majority of state and local elections across the United States is illegal for non-citizens. However, there are a few municipal jurisdictions that allow non-citizen voting in local elections. Investigations across different fields and institutions, such as state agencies, academics, think tanks, and journalists, have found that non-citizen voting is extremely rare, statistically negligible, and close to zero. In 2024, our team at the Center for an Informed Public has been studying rumors and conspiracy theories about the impacts of non-citizens illegally voting in U.S. elections.
- October 2024 WA Poll results [Survey USA]
- July 2024 WA Poll results [Survey USA]
- Michael Grass is the Center for an Informed Public’s assistant director for communications.
