2024 U.S. Elections
In September 2024, the University of Washington Center for an Informed Public’s election rumor research team published the first in a series of “What to expect when we’re electing” articles, drawn from insights gained through previous and current research, contextual knowledge, and consultation with community partners. Among other 2024 U.S. election research outputs, this series features articles introducing conceptual tools for understanding election rumoring (both in general and specifically in online settings) and for anticipating the types of rumors and tactics that we expect to see during different phases of the upcoming election.
Part 1: An Election Rumoring Timeline
September 5, 2024 | We outline eight distinct phases of the U.S. election process, each containing events that shape information dynamics. These phases consider the: (1) nature and pacing of election-related events; (2) levels of uncertainty, informational ambiguity and anxiety; (3) attention dynamics (online and within media); and (4) varying known tactics of political maneuvering and information manipulation.
Part 2: The 5 Moves of Misleading Election Rumors
September 9, 2024 | We’ve identified five major ways that election rumors mislead the public: (1) false evidence; (2) misinterpreted evidence; (3) exaggerated impact; (4) overlooked remedies; and (5) falsely attributed intent. Election rumors rarely feature entirely false or fabricated evidence, though we may find more examples of this as generative AI becomes ubiquitous. The complexity of U.S. election procedures, which vary by state and local jurisdiction, makes them susceptible to misinterpretation. These misunderstandings are often amplified and framed in misleading ways, contributing to the spread of false narratives.
Part 3: An Object-Oriented Framework for Pre-Election Rumors
October 2, 2024 | This piece offers an “object-oriented framework” for organizing the types of rumors that we expect to see emerge in the lead up to the November 5, 2024 election. We offer examples and explanations of rumors around rules, voter rolls, ballots, voting sites, machines, voters, and lastly, officials, workers, and observers. This is not an exhaustive list and focuses on registration, mail-in voting, and in-person early voting phases of the election.
- Read more: “What to expect when we’re electing: An object-oriented framework for pre-election rumors”
Coming Soon
In mid-October, we have plans to write a follow-up “What to expect when we’re electing” article for the Election Day and vote-counting phases.
Previously
In previous election cycles, researchers at the Center for an Informed Public, working as part of the Election Integrity Partnership, contributed to similar “What to Expect” analysis ahead of election day.
- 2022 | “Rumors, conspiracy theories, and unsubstantiated claims about voting: What to expect on and after Election Day 2022”
- 2020 | “Uncertainty and misinformation: What to expect on election night and days after”
Stay Informed
- Sign up for CIP election rumor research team updates via our Substack newsletter.
- The CIP’s 2024 U.S. election rumor research updates are also crossposted on the CIP’s 2024 Rapid Research Blog.
- PHOTO AT TOP: A voter drops a completed ballot into a mailbox in Lyon County, Nevada. (Photo by Kevin Standlee / Flickr via CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)
