What to expect when we’re electing: A series from the UW Center for an Informed Public

Sep 5, 2024

In this October 13, 2022 photo, a voter drops a completed ballot into a mailbox in Lyon County, Nevada.

2024 U.S. Elections

In September 2024, the University of Washington Center for an Informed Public’s election rumor research team published the first in a series of “What to expect when we’re electing” articles, drawn from insights gained through previous and current research, contextual knowledge, and consultation with community partners. Among other 2024 U.S. election research outputs, this series features articles introducing conceptual tools for understanding election rumoring (both in general and specifically in online settings) and for anticipating the types of rumors and tactics that we expect to see during different phases of the upcoming election.


Part 1: An Election Rumoring Timeline

September 5, 2024 | We outline eight distinct phases of the U.S. election process, each containing events that shape information dynamics. These phases consider the: (1) nature and pacing of election-related events; (2) levels of uncertainty, informational ambiguity and anxiety; (3) attention dynamics (online and within media); and (4) varying known tactics of political maneuvering and information manipulation. 


Part 2: The 5 Moves of Misleading Election Rumors

September 9, 2024 | We’ve identified five major ways that election rumors mislead the public: (1) false evidence; (2) misinterpreted evidence; (3) exaggerated impact; (4) overlooked remedies; and (5) falsely attributed intent. Election rumors rarely feature entirely false or fabricated evidence, though we may find more examples of this as generative AI becomes ubiquitous. The complexity of U.S. election procedures, which vary by state and local jurisdiction, makes them susceptible to misinterpretation. These misunderstandings are often amplified and framed in misleading ways, contributing to the spread of false narratives.


Part 3: An Object-Oriented Framework for Pre-Election Rumors

October 2, 2024 | This piece offers an “object-oriented framework” for organizing the types of rumors that we expect to see emerge in the lead up to the November 5, 2024 election. We offer examples and explanations of rumors around rules, voter rolls, ballots, voting sites, machines, voters, and lastly, officials, workers, and observers. This is not an exhaustive list and focuses on registration, mail-in voting, and in-person early voting phases of the election.

Part 4: Election Week: Uncertainty, Rumor-Gathering, and Lawsuits

October 31, 2024 | On Election Day, we can expect to see dozens or even hundreds of rumors emerge as the events of the day — likely to include both real and perceived issues, mistakes, irregularities, and disputes — are documented and shared online. These rumors are likely to echo familiar tropes and align with common themes, e.g., around perceived voter fraud. Rumoring about voting and election administration may be even more intense this cycle, because many Americans have been primed through ongoing exposure to election fraud narratives to think that the election will be “rigged” or stolen.

Part 5: What to Expect When We’re Electing: A Guide to Voting Machine Rumors

November 4, 2024 | In 2024, we have already seen dozens of reports of both real and perceived issues with voting machines as well as ongoing conspiracy theorizing about their alleged use in election fraud schemes. This year, we also may see more restraint from institutional media and online influencers when considering amplifying rumors about voting machines given the defamation suits. 


Previously

In previous election cycles, researchers at the Center for an Informed Public, working as part of the Election Integrity Partnership, contributed to similar “What to Expect” analysis ahead of election day.


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